The funded status of the 100 largest corporate defined benefit pension plans improved by $22 billion during May, as measured by the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI). An increase in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value pension liabilities led to a $19 billion decrease in these liabilities for the month. As of May 31, the PFI funded ratio rose to 104.9% from 103.0% at the end of April—and up from the 103.6% mark seen at the start of 2025.
The market value of plan assets improved by $2 billion during May thanks to the month’s 0.68% investment return. The Milliman 100 PFI asset value increased to $1.254 trillion as of May 31, 2025, from $1.252 trillion as of April 30, 2025. By comparison, the 2025 Milliman Pension Funding Study reported that the monthly expected investment return for fiscal-year 2024 was 0.53% (6.53% annualized). The full results of the annual 2025 study can be found at www.milliman.com/pfs.
The Milliman 100 PFI projected benefit obligation decreased during May to $1.195 trillion. The change resulted from an increase of 14 basis points in the monthly discount rate, from 5.57% in April to 5.71% for May—a 20-month high.
Highlights
| $ BILLION | FUNDED PERCENTAGE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MV | PBO | FUNDED STATUS | ||
| April | 1,252 | 1,215 | 37 | 103.0% |
| May | 1,254 | 1,195 | 58 | 104.9% |
| Monthly change | +2 | (19) | +22 | 1.9% |
| YTD Change | (11) | (25) | +14 | 1.3% |
Note: Numbers may not add up precisely due to rounding
Over the last 12 months (June 2024–May 2025), the PFI plans saw a cumulative asset return of 6.00% while the funded ratio increased from 103.2% to 104.9%. The funded status position improved by $19 billion thanks both to positive market returns and to rising discount rates, which experienced a net increase of 18 basis points to 5.71% from 5.53% one year ago.
Figure 1: Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index — Pension surplus/deficit
Figure 2: Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index — Pension funded ratio
2025-2026 projections
If the Milliman 100 PFI companies were to achieve the expected 6.53% median asset return (as per the 2025 PFS), and if the current discount rate of 5.71% remains unchanged throughout 2025 and 2026, we forecast that the funded status of the surveyed plans would increase. The pension surplus is projected to be $68 billion (funded ratio of 105.8%) by the end of 2025 and $86 billion (funded ratio of 107.3%) by the end of 2026. For purposes of this forecast, we have assumed 2025 and 2026 aggregate annual contributions of $20 billion.
Under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 6.06% by the end of 2025 and 6.66% by the end of 2026) and annual asset returns of 10.53%, the funded ratio is projected to climb to 112% by the end of 2025 and 126% by the end of 2026. Under a pessimistic forecast with similar interest rate and asset movements (5.36% discount rate at the end of 2025 and 4.76% by the end of 2026 and 2.53% annual asset returns), the funded ratio is projected to decline to 100% by the end of 2025 and 91% by the end of 2026.
Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index - June 2025 (all dollar amounts in millions)
Pension asset and liability returns
About the Milliman 100 monthly Pension Funding Index
For the past 25 years, Milliman has conducted an annual study of the 100 largest defined benefit pension plans sponsored by U.S. public companies. The Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index projects the funded status for pension plans included in our study, reflecting the impact of market returns and interest rate changes on pension funded status, utilizing the actual reported asset values, liabilities, and asset allocations of the companies’ pension plans.
The results of the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index were based on the actual pension plan accounting information disclosed in the footnotes to the companies’ annual reports for the 2024 fiscal year and for previous fiscal years. This pension plan accounting disclosure information was summarized as part of the Milliman 2025 Pension Funding Study, which was published on April 30, 2025. In addition to providing the financial information on the funded status of U.S. qualified pension plans, the footnotes may also include figures for the companies’ nonqualified and foreign plans, both of which are often unfunded or subject to different funding standards than those for U.S. qualified pension plans. They do not represent the funded status of the companies’ U.S. qualified pension plans under ERISA.