UnitedHealth Group recently commissioned Milliman to estimate what the reduction in federal expenditures to Medicare Advantage organizations (MAOs) would be if the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) were to no longer include diagnosis submissions from in-home health risk assessments (HRAs) in the Medicare Advantage (MA) risk adjustment calculations.

Key findings include:

• Estimated federal savings would be $62 billion over the 10-year period from 2026 through 2035, or $13 per member per month.
• Estimated savings in the first year would be $4.2 billion in 2026, growing to $8.9 billion in 2035.
• In terms of total dollars, Texas would see by far the highest impact from the change, even though California and Florida have significantly more Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in MA plans.
• If the removal of in-home HRAs proposal is implemented and MAOs aim to maintain 2025 profit margins, we estimate that over the next 10 years they would need to reduce benefits, or increase beneficiary premiums by $11 to $15 per month.

This report was commissioned by UnitedHealth Group, Inc. The report's accompanying appendices are available here.